Monday September 16, 2024.
A Time when typically we see the "Fall Market" commence.
As I've mentioned before in past conversations and posts, these weekly summaries showcase what is happening in the Real Estate Market in a given WEEK! This differs greatly from the Real Estate Board of Vancouver's Monthly Data. How?
The Real Estate Board publishes Active and Sold data that typically lags a few weeks from when it is relevant (yes, past/old data). Put another way, the Board data that gets released at the end of the month typically uses SOLD data of properties that are based on the "Date Of Processed." When the property was officially sold and the paperwork was processed, on the date of processing is when the sale gets recorded.
ie: If a sale takes place on October 15th (when the offer was signed and accepted between Buyer and Seller), and the buyer has 10 days of conditions to satisfy (October 25th), and the paperwork gets sent into the Real Estate Board on October 29th (but doesn't get processed until Nov 1), then the Sale of that property will appear in the November Sales Data (Even though it took place in October).
So what?
The impact to data can be both ways. If the market was particularly slow in November, but a whole whack of October sales happened mid to end of October (before the market got quiet) the Reports.. and thus, the Media! may signal that November was "a busy month in sales" when, in fact, it was NOT!!!! and therefore if you are a buyer or seller, this may impact how you react to New Listings and the Competitive Landscape.
ie: If you were a buyer in November, you may jump (write an offer quickly) on properties that only meet 75% of your criteria for fear of an accelerating market. Only to find out in December that the market has turned down (softened, as the new November Data is released and accompanied in December data). You could have waited a bit longer, to achieve most (maybe all) your dreams and wishes in a home!
This weekly summary below, highlights:
CURRENT ACTIVE inventory for the week - This is the current available inventory as of Sunday evening, prior to the week starting. As you may know, Monday and Tuesday tends to be the busiest for new listings in a given market.... more on this, some other time!
WEEKLY SOLDS for the week - This is based on the Sellers Accepted Data, which is when the contract was actually signed. Important to note here is that the last 2 weeks (14 days) of the market data below will always show very low sales data. MOST offers have a 5-10 day "Conditional Period" that allows the buyer to conduct their conditions (and get through the government enabled "3-day rescission period" This means that as of Sunday evening (The day i pull inventory and past weeks sales) there may be 1, 4, 9, 15+ accepted offers that are currently active, and have not been reported as SOLDS yet. The data lags a week or so (better than a month+) AND... each week, I update the sales for the entire Year (by week). So any trailing weeks solds, will update and get recorded in the week the sale actually happened. Dynamic Data!!!!
so here we go for September 16, 2024
North Vancouver Detached
Sales are low. We've been on a trajectory downward which the graph below will illustrate. the Above Yr/Yr line is just showing where we were in sales on September 16 (last year) compared to this year September 16.
You can see above the Sales in the last 5 weeks have really tapered off, as mentioned above you would expect this to happen in the last 2 weeks (no data yet) but the general trend over 5 weeks have been slow. Especially compared to last year. NOTE, the interest rate ("Announced 2 weeks ago, 0.25% drop) has not been absorbed, in my opinion, into the market just yet.
Inventory on the other hand has increased 15% in the last 2 weeks. This sharp increase is the welcomed "Fall Market" and is too early to draw any conclusions by.
On a side note, inventory of homes doesn't necessarily mean our market is saturated in all markets of the detached homes. Good A+ homes, priced well (more on this later) are lacking across the North Shore, and when they come to market, they typically move Quickly (sell fast!) and that is still the case today.
NORTH VANCOUVER CONDO
The Condo market as a whole in North Vancouver has experienced a sluggish Summer onward. I've reported this several times and for those reading this, i apologize on the repeat messaging!
Yr/Yr sales above show a serious taper in sales from about June onward
Sales above show a reverse pattern from THIS TIME LAST YEAR. We can see the Left Portion (Yellow Highlighted) timeframe of August/September 2023 was a robust active end of Summer into Spring with a Mid-September 2023 busy sales of around 26/sales a week.
Contrast that with a declining August/September 2024 (this year) towards the right-hand of the graph above. ** Again note the last 2 weeks of sales data will up updated next week and may show a trend around 8-10 units per week. You would expect this pattern with Slow/Declining sales activity in the Detached Home Market above. The 2 markets typically go hand-in-hand with a slight lag of a few months, as Sellers sell their Detached Homes and spend some time looking for their future downsize condo purchase (typically!)
Ballooning inventory for Fall!
Yes, the inventory for condo's in North Vancouver has ballooned a whopping 19% in the last 2 weeks. Fall Market listings have picked up for sure, as competition in the condo market remains.
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This data is obtained from the MLS system and is not investment advice or should not be relied upon by buyers and sellers, or the general public. Should you have any questions regarding the data, or the market, please contact brandon directly below. Brandon Crichton Personal Real Estate Corporation is owned and operated by Brandon Crichton.
778.847.2453
brandon@agentbrandon.com